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中国经济纵深谈——如何看待当前宏观政策

文章来源:中国建筑企业协会    最后更新时间:2019-09-12    阅读次数:

  hongguanzhengce,yuweiguanjingjihuodongxixixiangguan。

瑞丰体育  “shouyiyuchukoutuishuilvtigaohebanshuibianlihua,shangbannianwomennadaochukoutuishui1.2yiyuan,tongbizengjia0.8yiyuan,tuishuishenhebanlishijianyecong5tianyasuozhi1tian,rangwomenzaiguojijingzhengzhongruhutianyi。”shandonghaohualuntaiyouxiangongsifuzerenwangkeqiangshuo。

  duixiaoweiqiyeeryan,qizuoyongtongyangbukedigu。“buyaodiya、wuxudanbao,kannashuixinyongjilulianghao,yinxingjiujiwomenfangdai330wanyuan,youlezheibiqian,gongsijiunengganzaixinxueniankaishizhiqianzhengchangjiaohuo。”zhongqingshihenghongjiaoxueshebeiyouxiangongsifarendaibiaoshizilinshuo。

  hongguanzhengceshizhongguojingjibaochipingwenyunxing、maixianggaozhiliangfazhandezhongyaotuidongli。dangqian,woguojingjifazhanmianlinxindefengxiantiaozhan,guoneijingjixiaxingyalijiada,jianyanzhezhongguojingjinifengfeixiangdenenglishuiping,yekaoyanzhehongguanzhengcejiayudajudezhihuidandang。

  “yaozhuzhongzaiwenzengzhangdejichushangfangfengxian,qianghuacaizhengzhengce、huobizhengcedenizhouqidiaojiezuoyong,quebaojingjiyunxingzaiheliqujian,jianchizaituidonggaozhiliangfazhanzhongfangfanhuajiefengxian。”jinnianyilai,mianduiguoneiwaifengxiantiaozhanmingxianzengduodefuzajumian,yixijinpingtongzhiweihexindedangzhongyangzonglanquanju、kexuejuece,shishishidushishihongguanzhengcenizhouqidiaojie,youlituidongjingjigaozhiliangfazhan。

瑞丰体育  mianduiwaibuhuanjingzhibian,dangqianhongguandiaokongdexiaoguoruhe?weilaihongguanzhengcehaiyouduodakongjian?jizhejinxinglediaochacaifang。

  政策齐发力,逆周期调节有效对冲外部影响

瑞丰体育  “yiqiandaikuantingfeijing,xianzaiyinxingshangmenlai。guojiazhengcezhenshilaidejishi!”zhejiangshengxuexiuxianyongpinyouxiangongsishengchandehuwaixiuxianyongpinzhuyaoxiaowangoumeishichang,guojishichangbuquedingxingzengjia,gongsidongshizhangzhuxiaohuiqueduifazhanqianjingxinxinmanman。

瑞丰体育  “quniangongsizongchanzhi5yiyuan,jinnianshangbannianyiwancheng2.8yiyuan。”zhuxiaohuishuo,hongguanzhengcejiqiyedehuodeganhenqiang,zengzhishuilvxiadiaomeiniankejianshao500wanyuanchengben,qiye3500wanyuandaikuandelilvyebiqianjiniandi。“youlezheixiezijinzhichi,shengxuefangshoujianshe15wanpingfangmizhinengshengchanxianchangfang,zhengqu5nianneibachanzhizuodao10yiyuan。”

瑞丰体育  yushengxueyiyang,xuduoqiyedouganshoudaohongguandiaokongdailaidehuoliheshihui。jinnianyilai,mianduibaohuzhuyi、danbianzhuyitaitou,shijiejingjibuwendingbuquedingxingzengduodengwenti,woguoshishishidushishihongguanzhengcenizhouqidiaojie,jixushishijijidecaizhengzhengcehewenjiandehuobizhengce,shishijiuyeyouxianzhengce,zengqiangdiaokongqianzhanxing、zhenduixingheyouxiaoxing,wenzhulejingjiyunxing,tizhenleshichangxinxin。

瑞丰体育  ——jijidecaizhengzhengcejialitixiao,shishigengdaguimojianshuijiangfei。

瑞丰体育  1yue,xiaoweiqiyepuhuixingjianshuicuoshichutai,yujimeiniankezaiweixiaoweiqiyejianfuyue2000yiyuan;4yue,shenhuazengzhishuigaigeluodi,quannianjianfujiangchao1wanyiyuan;5yue,jiangdishebaofeilvfanganzhengshishishi,quannianjianfu3000duoyiyuan;7yue,jiangdibufenxingzhengshiyexingshoufeibiaozhun,quannianjianfu3000yiyuanyishang……jianshuijiangfeikuaimajiabian,zhengce“hongbao”yibojieyibo,jin2wanyiyuanjianshuijiangfeiguimojinnianlaihanjian。

瑞丰体育  shouruzuo“jianfa”,zhichuzuo“jiafa”。1zhi7yue,quanguocaizhengzhichutongbizengzhang9.9%,zengfutongbitigao2.6gebaifendian,baochilejiaoqiangdezhichulidu。“jijidecaizhengzhengceyouliladonglezongxuqiu,fahuizhegengdadenizhouqidiaojiezuoyong。”jiaotongyinxingshouxijingjixuejialianpingshuo。

  ——wenjiandehuobizhengcesongjinshidu,baochiliudongxinghelichongyu。

  1yue4ri,yangxingjuedingxiadiaojinrongjigoucunkuanzhunbeijinlv1gebaifendian,shifangzijinyue1.5wanyiyuan;5yue15riqi,yue1000jiafuwuxianyudenongcunshangyeyinxingshixingjiaodideyouhuicunkuanzhunbeijinlv;7yue22ri,kechuangbanmingluokaishi,weichuangxinxingqiyetuokuanrongziqudao……

  jinnianyilai,woguoshehuirongziguimozengsuzhubuhuisheng,6yuemoshehuirongziguimocunliang213.26wanyiyuan,tongbizengzhang10.9%,zengsubishangniangao1.1gebaifendian。“zheishi2018nian7yueyilaidezuigaoshuiping,xianshijinrongduishitijingjidezhichiliduzaijiada。”zhongguorenminyinxingxinwenfayanrenruanjianhongshuo。

瑞丰体育  youhuajiegou、jingzhundiguan,yixiliezhengcecuoshiyouxiaoshutonghuobichuandaojizhi,weiqiyedailaijiekeganlin。“shangbannian,zhongqingyinxingyetongguoluoshidingxiangjiangzhundengzhengce,hejishifangzijin236.24yiyuan,cujinshitijingjixuemaichangtong。”zhongqingyinbaojianjujuzhangwangzepingshuo。

瑞丰体育  ——jiuyeyouxianzhengcequanmianfali,duoguanqixiawendinghekuodajiuye。

  “‘wenjiuye’nengbangwomen‘wenrencai’!”zhongguojianzhudiergongchengjuyouxiangongsidongshizhangchenjianguangxingfendishuo,“jinnianzhongjianerjulingqudewengangbutiebiquniantigao10%,jiaonadeyanglaojinjiangdi4%,yongrenchengbendile,qiyejinnianlaowuyonggongguimojiaoqunianzengzhang30%,yingjiebiyeshengyebiqunianzengjia20%。”

  jinnian,woguoshoucijiangjiuyeyouxianzhengcezhiyuhongguanzhengcecengmian,zhengcexiaoguozhubuxianxian。1zhi7yue,chengzhenxinzengjiuye867wanren,wanchengquannianjihuade79%,jiuyeguimochixukuoda。

  “shangbannian,zhongguojingjizaiwaibubuquedingxingyinsuzengjiadeqingkuangxiayanxulezongtipingwen、wenzhongyoujindefazhantaishi,gdptongbizengzhang6.3%,zhuyaohongguanjingjizhibiaobaochizaiheliqujian。zheifentiqide‘bannianbao’beihou,hongguanzhengcedenizhouqidiaojiegongbukemei!”zhongguoshekeyuanshijiejingjiyuzhengzhiyanjiusuoyanjiuyuangaolingyunshuo。

  拒绝强刺激,宏观政策不搞“大水漫灌”

瑞丰体育  shenrutanjiudangqianhongguanzhengcedeneihan,wuluncongzhengcebenshendeqiangduhaishiduijingjiyunxingdezuoyonglaikan,nizhouqidiaojiedoubingfeiduanqi“qiangciji”。“nizhouqidiaojieshiyaoyunpingjingjiyunxingdeduanqibodong,erbushigaibianjingjiyunxingdefangxianghequshi;shiyaohuanchongjingjixiaxingdeyali,juebushiweile‘dashuimanguan’。”minshengyinxingshouxiyanjiuyuanwenbinshuo。

  ——congfalifangxiangkan,nizhouqidiaojiefuwuyugongjicejiegouxinggaige,zheyanyucujinjingjizhuanxingshengji。

  “yijiashouji”shishenzhenshiwanpulasikejiyouxiangongsiqixiadezhinengshoujipinpai,xiaowangquanqiu35geguojiahediqu,haiwaishichangxiaoliangzhanbichaoguo60%。“guojiatuichuyanfafeiyongjiajikouchudengyouhuizhengce,qiyejinnianyujijiangxiangshousuodeshuijianmian6562.5wanyuan,biqunianduo2302wanyuan。zheiyangyilai,gongsizhuanxingshengjiyoulechongzuzijin,zaishoujipingmujishudengfangmianqudetupo,guojijingzhengnenglidadazengqiang。”wanpulasicaiwuzongjianqinleishuo。

  qunianxiabannian,qiyeyanfafeiyongjiajikouchubilitigaodao75%dezhengcexiangshouzhutiyoukejixingzhongxiaoqiyekuodazhisuoyouqiye。zheiyiweizhe,qiyemeitouru100yuankaizhanyanfahuodong,shuiqiankouchueducongguoqude150yuantigaodao175yuan,ruguoan25%deqiyesuodeshuishuilvjisuan,jianshuijinecong12.5yuanzengzhi18.75yuan。duidabufenqiyelaishuo,jianshuihonglibiyiqianduoleyiban。

瑞丰体育  yijianshuicushengji、yitouzibuduanban、yililvshichanghuatuijinjinronggongjicegaige……nizhouqidiaojieyugongjicejiegouxinggaigexiangfuxiangcheng、xiangdeyizhang。

  ——congdiaojiefangshikan,hongguanzhengcejianchizaiqujiandiaokongjichushangjiaqiangdingxiang、xiangjidiaokong,zhudongyudiao、weidiao。

瑞丰体育  1yue23ri,yangxingkaizhanjinnianyijidudingxiangzhongqijiedaibianli(tmlf)caozuo,jinewei2575yiyuan,tmlfzheizhongxindehuobizhengcegongjushoucijinrurenmenshiye。yangxingbiaoshi,chuangshetmlfzhizaijinyibuqianghuanizhouqidiaojie,zhelihuanjiexindaigongjidezhiyueyinsu,jiadaduixiaowei、minyingqiyedejinrongzhichilidu。

瑞丰体育  “duanqiliudongxingdiaojiegongju(slo)”“changbeijiedaibianli(slf)”“zhongqijiedaibianli(mlf)”“diyabuchongdaikuan(psl)”……renmenfaxian,suizheyangxing“gongjuxiang”libuduanzengjiaxingongju,huobizhengcediaokongshouduanriqufengfu、gengjialinghuo,xiangbiguoqudanchunyikaoquanmianjiangzhunjiangxidengdiaokongfangshi,jintiandehuobizhengcediaokongliduqiadaohaochu,rangjinronghuoshuijingzhunliurushitijingji。

瑞丰体育  ——congzhengcechengxiaokan,zhizaoyedengshitijingjihexiaoweiqiyechengweinizhouqidiaojiedezhuyaoshouyizhe。

  “qiyechenglibudaoyinian,jiuhuodeyinxing155wanyuandexinyongdaikuan,nianlilv5%,shunlijieqingdaikuanhouhainenghuodedaikuanbenjin3%detiexi。”guangdonghuizhoudingzhikejiyouxiangongsizongjinglifuyongkaishuo。

  kunraoxiaoweiqiyededaikuannan、daikuanguizhengdedaohuanjie。jinnianqian5yue,woguoxinfafangpuhuixingxiaoweiqiyedaikuanpingjunlilvwei6.89%,biqunianquanniandepingjunshuipingxiajiang0.5gebaifendian。“jiashangchengdanhuozhejianmianxindaixiangguandefeiyong,xiaoweiqiyezongherongzichengbenjiangfuyichaoguo1gebaifendian。”zhongguorenminyinxinghuobizhengcesisizhangsunguofengshuo。

  4yue1ri,zuoweijinnianjianshuijiangfei“zhucai”deshenhuazengzhishuigaigezhengshishangzhuo,chidezuiyouziweideshizhizaoyeqiye。guojiashuiwuzongjushujuxianshi,shenhuazengzhishuigaigeshouyueshixianjingjianshui1113yiyuan,qizhongzhizaoyeshixianjingjianshui476yiyuan,jianshuizhanbichaosicheng,jusuoyouxingyeshouwei。

  护航经济发展,未来宏观政策具有充足空间

  feijinifengqifei,julunpolangqianxing,zhengshizuichijingdeshihou,xuyaojiazumali。dangqian,woguofazhanwaibuhuanjingzhongdetiaozhanyinsumingxianzengduo,guoneizhuanbianjingjifazhanfangshi、youhuajingjijiegou、tuidonggaozhiliangfazhanyijingjinrugongjiankenandeguanjianjieduan,zhongguojingjirunishuixingzhou,bujinzetui。

  7yuedizhaokaidezhonggongzhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyiqiangdiao,zuohaoxiabannianjingjigongzuoyiyizhongda。yaoshishihaojijidecaizhengzhengcehewenjiandehuobizhengce。caizhengzhengceyaojialitixiao,jixuluoshiluoxijianshuijiangfeizhengce。huobizhengceyaosongjinshidu,baochiliudongxinghelichongyu。

瑞丰体育  shoufangzhuanjiabiaoshi,weilai,wulunshiwendingjingjiyunxinghaishituidonggaozhiliangfazhan,woguohongguanzhengcedoujuyouchongzukongjian,jiangweicujinjingjichixujiankangfazhantigongyoulizhichi。

  ——kancaizhengzhengce,woguocaizhengchizilvshuipingbingbugao,“fangshuiyangyu”jiangcujincaizhengshouruliangxingzengzhang。

  congcaizhengchizikan,woguochiziguimocong2016niande2.18wanyiyuan,dao2017nian、2018niande2.38wanyiyuan,zaidaojinniande2.76wanyiyuan,guimochixuzengjia,tixianlejijicaizhengzhengce“jialitixiao”deyaoqiu。ercongchizilvkan,2016nian、2017nianjunwei2.9%,2018nianshi2.6%,jinnianyujiwei2.8%,shizhongkongzhizaiguojitongchangcaiyongde3%kongzhixianyinei,heshijiezhuyaojingjitixiangbi,woguochizilvshuipingbingbugao。

  jinnianlai,woguochixutuixingjianshuijiangfeizhengce,duicaizhengshouruzaochengdeyalixianeryijian。rucidaguimodejianshuijiangfei,huibuhuidailaicaizhengfengxian?

  shishishang,zheizhongkanfazhiguanzhujingtaideshuishoushouru,ermeiyoukandaoshuishouzhengceyujingjizengzhangdedongtaidiaozhengguanxi。

  genjulafuquxianlilun,shuishoushouruyibanqujueyulianggeyinsu,jishuilvgaodiheshuijidaxiao。duanqikan,shuijibubiandeqingkuangxia,jiangdishuilvqueshihuizaochengshourujianshao,dancongzhangqikan,jianshuiwangwangnengcujinjingjizengzhang,kuodashuiji,zuizhongshishuishoushouruzengjia。

  jinnianlaidetansuozhengming,tongguojianshuigulishitijingjizhuanxing、xinxingxingyefazhan,zuizhongshixianshuishouzengjia,lilunshangkexing,shijianzhongyouxiao。zaizuichushishi“yinggaizeng”deshanghaidengdi,pubianchuxianle“fangshuiyangyu”xiaoyingdailaideshuishouliangxingzengzhang。“jianshuijiangfeinengcujincaizhengshourukechixuzengzhang,shijijidecaizhengzhengcejubeigengdakongjian。”beijingguojiahuijixueyuancaishuizhengceyuyingyongyanjiusuosuozhanglixuhongshuo。

瑞丰体育  ——kanhuobizhengce,woguohuobizhengcegongjufengfu,younengliyingduigezhongbuquedingxing。

  qunian,yangxingxianhousicijiangdicunkuanzhunbeijinlv,jinnianchuyouquanmianjiangzhun1gebaifendian,danzongtishangkan,woguohuobizhengceyiranjuyouchongzukongjian,younengliyingduigezhongbuquedingxing。“guoneicunkuanzhunbeijinlvxiangduiguojiyinxingyepingjunshuipingrengchuyugaowei,yiranjuyouxiadiaokongjian。”lianpingshuo。

瑞丰体育  yucitongshi,woguohuobizhengcegongjubuduanchongshizengduo,jinnianyilai,yangxingxianhoudongyongzaidaikuan、zaitiexian、yangxingpiaojuhuhuandenggongju,yindaoliudongxinghelichongyu。“chuleshuliangxinggongju,weilaijiagexinggongjuyeyoucaozuokongjian。”zhongxinzhengquanyanjiubugudingshouyishouxiyanjiuyuanmingmingrenwei,tongguojiageganggandediaojie,ketuidongjinrongziyuanxiangzhenzhengyouzijinxuqiuhefazhanqianjingdexingye、qiyepeizhi。

瑞丰体育  zhongliujishui,fenjizhejin。mianduifuzayanjundefazhanhuanjing,mianduigengduogengdadefengxiantiaozhan,womenyaobaochidingli、zhanwenjiaogen、shenshidushi,bawohaohongguanzhengcequxiang,jiaqiangzhengcexiediaopeihe,weijingjifazhantiannengxushi,tuidongzhongguojingjihangchuanchengfengpolang,shixianggaozhiliangfazhandebian!

  《 renminribao 》( 2019nian08yue28ri 01 ban)

 

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